Justin Lin — October 20, 2026
As the campaign for votes ahead of November’s midterm elections reaches its climax, the Republican party finds itself in an increasingly dire position. One of those places where this is the most prevalent is the Lone Star State.
In less than a month from now, sitting Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton will face off against Democratic State Representative James Talarico for a seat in the United States Senate, in what is set to become one of the tightest elections in this election cycle. Texas, a state with a notoriously conservative voting record, would expect to vote towards Paxton; however, with Paxton’s controversial background—which includes impeachment and extramarital affairs—the state may break precedent this time.
The effects already seem to be taking place. Most pollsters put Talarico at a winning position against Paxton, though the margin of victory projected for Talarico is slim. Still, if the Democratic Party wants a shot at gaining a majority in the Senate, something that the Economist predicts to have a three-fifths chance of occurring, the search starts in Texas.
This hasn’t stopped the Republican Party from trying, however. On October 9th, Trump announced that he had struck a deal to start buying diesel from Russia again, a move that broke historical precedent from U.S. foreign policy encouraging American politicians to inflict economic pressure on the country. Similarly, the Treasury Department—on the same day—announced that they would be lifting all sanctions on Russian diesel following Trump’s statement.
Diesel prices in the United States have hit record highs; however, it hits especially hard for Texans, whose Governor—Greg Abbott—just recently declared a statewide emergency over the tumultuous increase in gas prices across Texas. Trump hopes to buy Russian diesel as a way to potentially lower prices of diesel ahead of the midterm elections in order to position the Republican party, which currently holds a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, to win a greater number of votes.
Yet, that push may be too late. Talarico’s momentum may be too large for Paxton to recover from, especially considering the controversial history that surrounds the latter as he heads into Election Day. Not just that, but the move around diesel might not even be helping in the first place. A model made by the Economist put Trump at a 34% approval rate, a new low; in the points system also provided by the Economist, he sits at a grim -27.
With Trump growing to be increasingly unpopular nationwide, his push to help Texans may be for naught if most already view him with negative connotations. Yet, Paxton will need every single push the Republican Party has in order to have a winning chance at this race. Otherwise, Talarico may steal the show.
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