Canada After Nine Years

January 13, 2025

Andy Choy

After nine years in office, Justin Trudeau announced on January 6th he intends to resign as Prime Minister of Canada after Canada’s Liberal Party elects a new party leader, who will also become Prime Minister. Trudeau was elected in October 2015, defeating Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party that was in power since January 2006 and Tom Mulcair’s New Democratic Party (NDP) by a 7.56% victory margin. Trudeau’s election was considered a bounceback for the Liberals after Canada’s 2011 federal elections, during which the Jack Layton-led NDP took the Liberals’ status as the most popular left-leaning party in an “Orange Wave.”

During the 2015 federal election, Trudeau campaigned on a platform of change, planning to increase government spending on projects and create social reform. However, nine years later, many Canadians seem to think although Trudeau changed the country, he changed it for the worse. Despite some policy successes over the years, including progress towards reconciliation with Canada’s Indigenous people, Trudeau’s approval rating hit record lows of 16% days before his resignation. His unpopularity resulted from bureaucratic inefficiency, economic mismanagement, government scandals, and personal controversies on his nine-year leadership record.

The final straw that forced Trudeau from 24 Sussex was the December 2024 resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland following disagreements between her and Trudeau about tax policy and responding to American President-elect Donald Trump’s 25% tariff threats against Canada. Freeland’s resignation increased the Liberal Party’s doubts on Trudeau’s leadership, with several Liberal legislators calling for his resignation.

Only three months prior, Jagmeet Singh’s NDP officially withdrew from its ruling coalition with the Liberals, risking a no-confidence vote against Trudeau in the Canadian legislature that would call an early federal election. After Freeland resigned, Singh declared the NDP would join the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois in calling an early election. Under pressure from both opposition parties and his own party, Trudeau was forced to step down from leadership, ending nine years of Canada under his often troubled administration.

What happened before?

“Justin-flation”

One of the major reasons why Justin Trudeau’s administration has plummeted in popularity is his poor management of the Canadian economy. During the 2015 federal elections, Trudeau’s platform involved increased government spending towards programs, partly based on his theory “the budget will balance itself.” Stephen Harper, his Conservative opponent, claimed Trudeau “has no idea what he is talking about” and would overspend. Despite Harper’s own economic failure during Canada’s 2015 oil market crisis, his prediction about Trudeau’s spending seems to be proven. From 2018 to 2023, Trudeau’s administration deficit spent the most in Canada’s history, with his CA$61.9 billion 2023–2024 deficit almost 31 times more than the CA$2 billion 2014–2015 pre-Trudeau deficit.

Trudeau’s spending plans likely contributed to his difficulties fighting Canada’s overinflation. Compared to 2015 before Trudeau’s election, the Canadian dollar devalued by 22%. In addition to devalued currency, Canada’s food bank usage increased by approximately 90% and housing prices increased by more than 100%. A Royal Bank of Canada report published in December 2023 concluded 74% of Canadians could not afford to purchase a single-family home. Although the depth of Canada’s current economic problems are more connected to the COVID-19 pandemic, Trudeau’s economic policies remain criticised because Canada recovered from the pandemic slower than most OECD countries. Citing Trudeau’s poor record against inflation, Conservative policymakers coined the phrase “Justin-flation,” which is now used as a political slogan against Trudeau.

“ArriveSCAM”

Justin Trudeau’s government has faced scrutiny over not only how much they spend but also where they spent it. One notable Trudeau spending scandal occurred after he invested CA$54 million hiring 23 subcontractors to develop the ArriveCAN mobile application. ArriveCAN’s function is to allow people entering Canada to electronically submit travel documentation, originally used for COVID-19 containment efforts. In October 2022, two years after Arrive CAN’s April 2020 release date, controversy arose regarding its development after two software engineers both individually developed functional ArriveCAN duplicates at the cost of approximately CA$250,000. This prompted the Auditor General of Canada to audit ArriveCAN the following month. In a report published in February 2024, the Auditor General concluded the ArriveCAN project disregarded “basic management and contracting practices” and Trudeau overfunded its creation. One month prior, the Procurement Ombudsman of Canada released a separate report concluding multiple ArriveCAN subcontractors failed to do work on the application despite Trudeau paying them. Trudeau’s political opponents have used the ArriveCAN contracting scandal as an example of his fiscal incompetence and possible corruption, claiming Trudeau “scammed” Canadians and nicknaming the application “ArriveSCAM.”

SNC-Lavalin Javelin

Besides financial mismanagement, Justin Trudeau has also been involved in coercing party members to further his interests, specifically during the SNC-Lavalin scandal. Allegations about Trudeau’s dealings with the SNC-Lavalin construction company first surfaced in February 2019 after he removed Jody Wilson-Raybould as Attorney General of Canada during a Cabinet shuffle one month prior. The allegations accused Trudeau of illegally pressuring Wilson-Raybould to interfere with SNC-Lavalin’s criminal case, which involved CA$48 million in bribes the company paid to Libyan officials when Muammar Gaddafi was in power. Supposedly, Wilson-Raybould refused to offer SNC-Lavalin a deferred prosecution agreement as Trudeau requested and was removed from office as a result. An investigation conducted by the Conflict of Interest and Ethics Commissioner of Canada found that August Trudeau violated Section 9 of Canada’s Conflict of Interest Act by attempting to influence Wilson-Raybould, having been lobbied by SNC-Lavalin to halt its prosecution. People opposed to the Trudeau administration have since repeatedly cited the SNC-Lavalin scandal as an example of major Liberal corruption.

Xi Xi Ha Ha

Outside of Canada’s borders, the Trudeau administration experienced shaky international relations, particularly with China. One incident often used to highlight Canada’s tense diplomacy with China under Justin Trudeau occurred during the November 2022 meetings between the leaders of the G20 countries in Indonesia. After Trudeau met with Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping, Canadian officials leaked details about their meeting to the press, which were then broadcasted worldwide. Xi proceeded to publicly confront Trudeau and label him “insincere.” Trudeau’s critics claimed this admonishment embarrassed Canada on the world stage with Xi not taking Canada’s leadership seriously.

The G20 incident with General Secretary Xi was a minor mishap that symbolised much larger issues between Canada’s interactions with China. For example, the G20 meeting leaked to the press that led to Xi’s confrontation discussed allegations China interfered with Canada’s 2019 and 2021 federal elections, a concern that called the Trudeau administration’s competence and integrity into question throughout the years. The same month of the G20 meetings, Canadian news agency Global News released an investigative report detailing how China used illegal tactics to interfere with Canada’s previous two elections, both of which Trudeau won. According to the report, multiple 2019 federal election candidates received secret funding from China’s Communist Party (CCP) and intentionally associated with CCP interests. A further report Global News wrote three months later in February 2023 claimed Trudeau ignored warnings from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) China was tampering with election processes. Erin O’Toole, leader of the Conservatives during the 2021 federal election, claimed CSIS alerted him to Chinese interference during that election as well. An April 2024 investigation conducted by Global Affairs Canada, the government department that manages international diplomacy, concluded China News Service-sponsored propaganda indeed targeted opposition candidates in 2021. Trudeau was criticised by Conservative, NDP, and Bloc Québécois policymakers for failing to take action against China’s interference and properly inform people about the situation.

One of the people accused of harbouring CCP influence was Han Dong, a then-Liberal legislator currently representing the Don Valley North district in Ontario as an independent politician, having left the Liberal Party following the election interference case. Allegedly, in February 2021, Dong advised the Chinese government not to release Canadian citizens Micheal Kovrig and Micheal Spavor from imprisonment in China. Dong denies this accusation, but regardless of whether or not the claims against him are true, it is likely true the arrests of Kovrig and Spavor were retaliatory following another Trudeau-related diplomatic incident in December 2018. On the first day of that month, Canadian authorities arrested Huawei’s Deputy Board Chairperson Meng Wanzhou after she arrived in Vancouver, granting an American extradition request that alleged she was violating sanctions against Iran. While American officials praised Canada for Meng’s arrest, Canada–China relations soured. China condemned the arrest and called for Canada to release Meng. Policymakers such as former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien were concerned the arrest, which did not directly involve Trudeau but occurred under his watch, sacrificed Canada’s collaborative platform with China but only benefited America.

Moody Modi

Under Justin Trudeau, Canada has not experienced diplomatic breakdowns with China alone. In September 2023, the Trudeau government accused the Government of India of assassinating Sikh activist and Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar earlier that year on Canadian soil. This claim rapidly escalated into a diplomatic crisis with India. The Ministry of External Affairs of India denied India was involved in the assassination and both countries started expelling each others’ diplomatic officials one day after Trudeau made his allegation, accusing each other of foreign interference. By the end of October, both sides issued travel warnings against one another and nearly two-thirds of Canada’s diplomatic officials were ordered to leave India. The situation remains unresolved to this day as Canadian authorities continue to investigate Nijjar’s assassination and Wilson Centre foreign policy specialist Michael Kugelman thinks repaired Canada–India relations are far away. In the meantime, Trudeau has received backlash for failing to produce evidence to support his accusation and ruining Canadian diplomacy with India.

What happens after?

New Leader, Old Story

With Justin Trudeau out, the Liberals are scrambling to elect a new party leader and Prime Minister. Currently, the Liberal leadership election is scheduled on March 9th. Since the 2025 federal elections are scheduled for October 20th, this could give the Liberals a chance to elect a new Prime Minister who can lead the country for seven months, possibly giving them a chance to recover their dwindling popular support. This is the best case scheduling scenario for the Liberals and things could go wrong, especially because the NDP has withdrawn from its coalition with them. If NDP legislators vote alongside their Conservative and Bloc Québécois colleagues in support of a no-confidence motion, Canada will hold an early election. As of his latest statement on the matter, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh intends for his party to do so.

This means the Liberals must prevent a no-confidence motion from passing in the legislature if they wish to have the best chance at an election recovery. There are two clear ways to do so right now. The first way is to convince the NDP to re-coalition with the Liberals. This way is less feasible because the NDP has already begun criticising the Liberals in preparation for an election. U-turning once more on their support for the Liberals would likely damage the NDP’s reputation and election chances. The second way is to prorogue the Parliament of Canada —like British Prime Minister Boris Johnson attempted in 2019 during Brexit negotiations—, preventing legislators from meeting to vote on a no-confidence motion. This way is more controversial, not only because it could appear to parallel South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s ill-received martial law declaration, but also because it has recently already been done. When Trudeau resigned, he asked Governor General of Canada Mary Simon to stop Parliament meetings until March 24th when the Liberals elect a new leader. This first prorogation is more understandable, as calling an early election while the Liberal leadership remains vacant might spur chaos in Canadian politics. However, further blocking Parliament from meeting beyond that point risks being perceived as the Liberals playing political games to avoid the people’s vote and could face legal challenges from the opposition.

Even if the Liberals manage to stop an early election, it is unclear whether electing a new leader will improve their election chances. Most of the Liberal leadership favourites worked to support Trudeau, making them synonymous with the now unpopular Prime Minister. This means voters might view any Liberal leadership candidate as no different from Trudeau and continue to vote against the Liberals. As of now, Trudeau’s most likely successors have not yet officially declared their candidacy for Liberal leader and Prime Minister but are expected to do so soon. Among the favourites are now-former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, and Innovation, Science and Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne. Due to an unofficial but long-standing precedent that the Liberals alternate between English-speaking and French-speaking leaders, either Freeland or Carney will likely be elected because Trudeau and Champagne are French-speaking. Unfortunately for the frontrunners, they are both associated with Trudeau’s unsatisfactory economic policies, with Carney so involved in Trudeau’s controversial carbon tax Conservative supporters nickname him “Carbon Tax Carney.” This association does not raise the Liberals’ federal election chances. In fact, there is a possibility the NDP will once again overtake the Liberals as Canada’s most popular left-leaning party like they did during the 2011 “Orange Wave.” The NDP is currently polling close to the Liberals with a difference of as close as 2% of the popular vote.

“Common Sense Plan”

With the Liberals without a paddle, the polls project the Conservatives will race up the creek to victory whenever a federal election is called this year. Currently ahead in the race by an approximately 26% margin of victory, the Conservatives are led by Pierre Poilievre, who was Canada’s Employment and Social Development Minister during the Harper administration that Justin Trudeau succeeded. Some people have drawn comparisons between Poilievre and President-elect Trump. Although there are similarities between the two conservative leaders, Poilievre’s policies —called the “Common Sense Plan”— are more moderate overall compared to Trump’s, reflecting the tendency for Canadian politics to be less radical than its American counterpart.

One of Poilievre’s central policy platforms responds to the Canadian economy that has struggled to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic under the Trudeau administration. Poilievre intends to revive the Canadian economy by increasing the country’s strategic independence, constructing energy, oil, mineral, and other production infrastructure on Canadian soil. Through such an economy, Poilievre aims to introduce more domestic goods into the market to fight Canada’s inflation crisis. Strengthening the domestic economy is also Poilievre’s response to Trump’s recent 25% tariff threats, intending to show Trump Canada’s economy could hold its own despite American pressure.

To encourage businesses to build economic infrastructure in Canada, Poilievre plans to decrease taxation, especially targeting Trudeau’s tax on carbon emissions. According to him, Trudeau’s carbon tax is increasing production costs, forcing companies to either increase prices on the consumer or leave the country. The Liberals and the NDP are raising concerns abolishing the carbon tax would increase carbon emissions and setback climate progress. Poilievre cites how Canada remains not on track to meet emissions reduction targets despite Trudeau repeatedly raising the tax rate. On environmental protections, Poilievre argues the optimal solution to climate change is to develop sustainable technologies. On the dark side, he has not yet made clear what such technologies he plans to support, whether it is renewable energy transitioning or other initiatives. On the bright side, at least Poilievre acknowledges climate change is a real and human-influenced problem, unlike some American conservatives.

To make way for his tax cuts, Poilievre plans to slash government expenditures, reversing many of Trudeau’s programs that Poilievre claims were not financially efficient. While Poilievre suggests these losses would be offset by a recovering economy, Liberal and NDP policymakers are concerned Canadians in need could be left behind as the Poilievre economy runs ahead. In particular, Trudeau’s dental care and childcare coverage initiatives would likely be defunded. If Poilievre is unsuccessful in providing an affordable alternative, millions of people may struggle to receive important care. As the upcoming federal election approaches, Poilievre will likely announce more detailed plans to “axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget, and stop the crime.” For now, it seems Canada’s frontrunner for its post-election leader will pursue fiscal conservative policies that prioritise a more independent domestic economy and more private sector opportunities, possibly at the cost of environmental initiatives and social programs.

No matter who is the new Liberal leader, if Parliament is prorogued again, if the NDP U-turns again, or who wins the next federal election, Justin Trudeau will no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada. As if he was a cat with nine lives, his nine years as leader of the land from sea to sea have run out at last.