Joseph Aoun Ascends to the Lebanese Presidency

January 13th, 2025

Lindsey Zhao

A new president has been elected in Lebanon after a years-long stalemate. Yes, years. Even though it’s been over two years since the last president’s term ended, political polarization and Israel’s war on Lebanon near the end of 2023 completely derailed talks to choose a candidate. Army commander Joseph Aoun was selected after several rounds of votes.

In Lebanon, Parliament comes together to select a president, a mostly symbolic role but with the powers of appointing a prime minister and Cabinet. Lebanon has been through these extended presidential vacancies before, partly due to a power-sharing system where the president is always a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the speaker of parliament Shiite.

Aoun, relatively uncontroversial in Lebanon and the US and Saudi Arabia’s preferred candidate, beat out his most notable challenger, Sleiman Frangieh. Frangieh was backed by Hezbollah but withdrew one day before the last vote, allowing Aoun to be voted in unopposed. Aoun secured the support of the “Strong Republic Bloc”, the largest Christian bloc in Parliament, but not the second largest Christian alliance.

Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and paramilitary group backed by Iran, has been a dominant, coercive player in Lebanese politics for decades, building up a network of political alliances and social services that made it indispensable. Then, everything came crashing down when their war with Israel wiped out Hezbollah’s top leaders, much of their military arsenal, and public trust in the group. They further lost influence when Syrian rebels toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which had provided the main land route for weapons and cash to be sent to Hezbollah.

Now, the election of a president previously not supported by Hezbollah signals that they’re less influential than ever. After repeatedly obstructing the election of any other candidate by preventing Parliament from forming a quorum, they finally cast ballots in favor of Aoun earlier this week.

President-elect Aoun has a lot to get done. Reconstruction from Hezbollah’s war with Israel is likely to cost the country well over $6 billion. Already struggling with a financial crisis, Lebanon will find it increasingly difficult to get loans from international creditors like the World Bank or the IMF. The state power company provides just a few hours of electricity a day. The war cost the country well over $7 billion in economic losses, and with more than 1 million displaced persons from the peak of the war, it will be a long time yet before Lebanon can recover. Aoun has little to no experience with economic matters, meaning he’ll likely rely on international allies and his advisors for guidance.