Greenland: the Impossible Deal

January 13th, 2025

Daphne Kalir-Starr

Throughout his career, Donald Trump has lauded himself for his negotiating skills. Most (in)famously, in his book “The Art Of The Deal,” he touts his accomplishment to gain the building rights to Trump Tower: Moscow. However, Trump’s most recent infatuation, Greenland, may prove more difficult for him to acquire.

Greenland is presently an autonomous territory within Denmark, with a population of just 56,000. It stands as the largest island in the world. Although it remains formally a part of Denmark, Greenland has established its own parliament, prime minister, and a distinct tax system. In addition, a 2009 referendum gave Greenlandic citizens the option to seek full independence from Denmark if they decide to become an independent nation in the future. The nation also boasts a membership to NATO and the EU through Denmark.

Greenland could potentially be useful to the United States in three ways.

The first has to do with Greenland’s geographic position. Because two thirds of the country lies above the Arctic Circle, it has the potential to be an integral part of the race to claim the Arctic. Currently, Russia and China are decisively beating America in this venture, outspending our scientific ventures, military preparation with the goal of accessing an estimated 1,669 trillion cubic feet of gas (about 30% of the world's undiscovered natural gas resources,) valuable stores of lithium, and lucrative trading routes. If the United States was able to access Greenland – whether through a formalized alliance or acquisition – it could enable much needed geographic proximity to the Arctic, which in turn could facilitate the harvesting of these resources.

The second benefit is Greenland’s supply of rare earth minerals. Rare earth minerals refer to a series of uncommon metallic elements, which are often integral in the construction of valuable military equipment or technology. China currently produces and refines over 90% of the world’s exported rare minerals and lithium (necessary to build EV batteries, and graphic processing units – GPUs). However, Greenland boasts a quarter of the world’s unmined rare earth minerals such as cerium and lanthanum, which could be integral to countering China’s monopoly, and more importantly enabling the US to pull ahead in a bitter EV manufacturing race.

Finally, in 1951 the US constructed the Pituffik military base in Greenland’s northwest, arming it with early warning ballistic missile detection systems. This base has created the shortest route between NATO’s European countries to North America, meaning it could enable armed forces to gather on short notice if Russia or another aggressor provoked a US ally.

However, regardless of Greenland’s valuable assets, the question remains: will Trump successfully take over Greenland? Though Trump has been able to surprise us before, the US would face an uphill battle to acquire the island. Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte Egede recently stated that under his leadership, Greenland would seek independence from Denmark if the U.S. tried to buy it. With strong support for autonomy and opposition to Trump, his plan would likely succeed, making the island unpurchasable. However, even if Trump was able to strike a deal with Egede, domestic blowback would likely be immediate and severe. Initial estimates price Greenland at anywhere from 77 billion to 1.1 trillion dollars, which would likely be objected to by house members who would understandably balk at the price tag. Even the GOP’s majority would struggle with so many hesitant party members. Finally, if Trump was to rally America’s military forces to annex or invade Greenland, the result would likely be disastrous. Through NATO’s article five, member states would be compelled to come to Greenland’s defense, causing international turmoil. No matter how much bravado Trump claims to have, the wrath of the international community will be a burden to consider before he chooses to escalate.

While Greenland is undoubtedly valuable, the U.S. would be wiser to pursue diplomatic solutions. Through negotiation, America could gain access to Greenland’s rare earth minerals and strategic military bases, without the political fallout of a forced acquisition. While Donald Trump considers himself the master of the deal, the president may soon have to grapple with the reality that this acquisition is one that he cannot close.