What's Next for NATO

January 27th, 2025

Rowan Seipp

After his surprise pardoning of Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, the American public is beginning to consider Donald Trump’s other campaign and first-term promises. Among them are “Making America Great Again,” repealing the Affordable Care Act, and reducing national debt. However, the question of his incoming policy toward NATO remains unanswered.

During his first term, Trump heavily criticized fellow NATO members for not meeting the alliance's defense spending target of 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The pressure he and his administration placed on NATO allies likely correlated with their contribution increasing by about 4.8% during his tenure. These actions faced both support and scrutiny. His administration outwardly supported him, with figures such as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump's envoy, Richard Grenell, publicly campaigned for this policy. However, many feared that he was worsening the international security of the United States by threatening to leave the alliance if they did not meet his goals.

Still, it is clear that President Trump is not yet satisfied. Just three days ago, he demanded at the World Economic Forum that defense expenditures be above 5% per country. This followed his out-of-term statements on January 23rd, which stated, "[He is] not sure we should be spending anything, but we should certainly be helping them. We're protecting them. They are not protecting us."

Some leaders have chosen to side with President-elect Donald Trump. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu have qualified his message, stating that strengthening European defense capabilities is crucial; however, they also showed their loyalty to other NATO countries, expressing reluctance to engage in a "numbers game" regarding specific spending targets.

As a whole, NATO has responded to this in a multitude of ways. The most major one was recognized as such an overt measure of protection that it quickly became denoted as “Trump-proofing”, essentially non-US members’ attempt to safeguard their alliance against potential policy shifts or actions by Trump in the case that he become president again—which, evidently, he did. One critical measure has been the recent establishment of new commands to coordinate the supply of arms and training to Ukraine, ensuring that support continues even if U.S. policy changes.