Poles, to the Polls!

January 27th, 2025

Ian Cheng

Every Saturday on a Formula 1 race weekend, the drivers fight for pole position on Sunday’s race. Poland is now in that same situation. Its presidential candidates are now on the campaign trail, trying to convince Poles that they should win.

Donald Tusk of the centrist Civic Coalition (PO), former president of the European Council and the current prime minister, leads the Sejm, which is the lower house of parliament. His party’s coalition with the Third Union and the New Left holds a collective 53.7% majority thanks to a victory in October 2023 over the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party. However, Polish politics is still divided. The standing president, Andrzej Duda, is a member of the PiS.

The presidency in Poland is a less powerful role than that of the prime minister, but importantly, the president can veto governmental legislation. President Duda has used this right to push his party’s interests into the government, making it inefficient.

Polls from Politico report that the PiS leads, with 33% compared to the PO’s 32%, an insanely narrow margin. The latter’s candidate is Rafal Trazskowski, the current mayor of the Polish capital, Warsaw. If he’s elected, he will largely continue Tusk’s reforms. For example, the ruling coalition has been very direct with their intention to station NATO troops near Ukraine. But, just 15% of Poles have a favorable view of Tusk’s government, raising concerns that Trazskowski’s campaign could be dragged down.

The PiS’ candidate is Karol Nawrocki, who has a history of doing the party’s largely undemocratic biddings. For instance, he’s the head of the Institute of National Remembrance, which investigates Polish history. Mr. Nawrocki has politicized this role in ways that portray the Law and Justice Party as the hero. He also helped to pass the controversial “Holocaust Law”, which made it illegal to say Poland was at fault for crimes committed in World War 2, raising large concerns about democracy and accountability. If he’s elected, the government will likely stay how it is, divided and undergoing constant vetoes of Parliament legislation.

Syzmon Holownia, the current speaker of the Sejm, is the Third Union’s candidate for the presidency. He holds around 9% of the vote. The far-right Confederation party, who was previously seen as an ally to the PiS, is headed by Slawomir Mentzen. He’s polling at 14%.

Whichever way this election goes, Poland will remain a supporter of Ukraine. Across the course of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Poland provided nearly 5% of its annual GDP, which is about 3.4 billion US dollars, in military aid. But, aid may be cut down if the Confederation or PiS take the presidency due to far-right pressures and a want to protect Polish farmers from competitive Ukrainian grain imports.

Despite this, Russia is still going strong against Ukraine, and Poland holds the EU presidency in 2025. Thus, a stable government is of the utmost importance. Poland plans a 10% increase in the defense budget for 2025, but retaining military personnel and being able to adapt to new technologies are still big issues that need to be addressed by the future president.

The economy is also an issue. Poland’s GDP has risen about 3% this year. However, inflation is still projected to rise this year by about a percentage point, even though the central bank has held interest rates high at 5.75%.

If PiS wins, reproductive rights in Poland, already some of the most restrictive in Europe, will only be narrowed. The party has already removed exemptions that give legal abortions to women at risk, and have largely prevented opposition efforts in the Parliament to expand rights.

Finally, these developments show that the far right’s rise in Europe has sunk into Poland. The government’s strategy to secure their eastern border with Russia already includes limiting asylum access for refugees, marking a rightwards shift.

With so much on the line, Poland is walking a tightrope. Like how the front of a Formula 1 race can change in the fraction of a second, the presidential election is exceedingly close. One small change can make all the difference.