The Bogota Bow: Colombia Surrenders to Trump’s Threats

January 27th, 2025

Blake McFalls

Since Donald Trump’s election, he has resorted to tariff threats to get his way, specifically with Canada and Mexico. However, one specific tariff threat has stood out recently. On January 26, 2025, Trump ordered the White House to tariff Colombia 25% on all goods — which would increase to 50% after one week of no cooperation — and restrict visas due to Trump’s anger over Colombia’s turning back of US deportation flights. Just a couple of hours later, though, Colombian President Gustavo Petro succumbed to American threats, and agreed to accept deportation flights. Donald Trump's willingness to take such drastic actions over a small incident indicates that situations like this could happen again.

Trump is clearly targeting vulnerable economies with targeted threats. After the COVID-19 pandemic, Colombia’s GDP shrunk by 7% in 2020 and struggled to recover after. However, 2024 was the year the country finally recovered. The OECD predicts a modest level of growth here on out, primarily due to fiscal responsibility and growth of the formal sector. The formal sector is especially important because the formal sector, substantially more so than the informal sector, exports goods to both domestic and foreign markets, potentially raising Colombia’s $28.7B worth of exports to the US. If tariffs were to come around, Colombia would lose access to its largest foreign market and trading partner, violating a 2006 free trade agreement. In fact, the Colombian government would most likely face immediate disapproval from its people, as over 500,000 Colombians rely on coffee, its main export, and its profits for their livelihoods. Thus, even though Petro voiced his disapproval of Trump’s response, Colombia set aside their values and followed through with what Trump asked for.

Trump’s success and Colombia’s failure in this situation will give Trump the confidence to apply his Colombia tariff policy elsewhere. For example, Brazil could be on the chopping block. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his foreign minister have supported Colombia throughout the ordeal, advocating for pragmatic policy and halting deportation flights to Latin America. Trump has since slandered both Colombia and Brazil on Truth Social, his social media platform. The US is fairly important to Brazil, being its second largest trading partner, and the current smooth relationship between the two nations would be diplomatically and economically shaken up by Trump’s tariffs, which could happen if Brazil continues to reject deportation flights. Somewhat related to deportation flights, Mexico’s time is ticking. Trump recently proposed a 25% tariff on Mexico, planned to begin on February 1. Trump argues that if Mexico does not take the right steps to stop illegal immigration at Mexico’s northern border, he will go through with it. Mexican industrialization largely relies on American companies, such as General Motors, basing production operations across the border, so Trump’s coercion tactics could feasibly work with Mexico.

Colombia bowing down to the US serves as a cautionary tale that other Latin American nations noncompliant with Trump must look out for, because if no government properly stands up to Trump, he will continue to flex his economic muscles across the world.