The Philippines' Brewing Political Crisis

February 10th, 2025

Aaniya Khan

The Philippines is in the midst of a political firestorm, and at the center of it all is Vice President Sara Duterte. In a saga that seems ripped from the pages of a political thriller, Duterte now faces an impeachment complaint loaded with accusations of corruption, power abuse, and even conspiracy to assassinate President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. With 215 members of the House of Representatives endorsing the complaint, the battle lines have been drawn, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

But, It wasn’t always this way. The Marcos and Duterte families once stood as political allies, united in a bid to consolidate power. Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the infamous dictator Ferdinand Marcos, and Sara Duterte, daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, represented a political juggernaut that seemed untouchable. But that was then. Now, their partnership has disintegrated into a full-scale war, setting the stage for one of the most contentious political showdowns in the nation’s history.

The impeachment complaint against Duterte reads like a laundry list of political scandals. Accusations range from the misuse of public funds to the accumulation of unexplained wealth. But the most explosive charge? Allegations that Duterte was involved in a plot to assassinate President Marcos Jr., along with issuing threats against the First Lady and the House Speaker. Unsurprisingly, Duterte has called these claims a baseless political hit job, designed to eliminate her as a threat in the upcoming midterms.

So what happens next? The Senate is set to take up the impeachment trial in June, just as the country heads into its midterm elections. Senate President Francis Escudero has announced that the Senate will commence the impeachment trial on June 2, 2025, after the midterm elections, as the Senate is currently in recess and cannot convene earlier. To successfully remove Duterte from office, a two-thirds majority in the Senate must vote for conviction. If that happens, she’ll be permanently barred from holding public office—a political death sentence for a woman many believed had her eyes set on the presidency in 2028.

The outcome of these elections is pivotal. If pro-Duterte candidates secure significant victories, they could influence the Senate's composition, potentially affecting the two-thirds majority required for conviction. Conversely, if allies of the President gain more seats, the likelihood of Duterte's conviction increases. This interplay between the impeachment proceedings and the midterm elections underscores the high stakes involved, as both political factions vie for control and influence within the government.

However, this impeachment trial isn’t happening in a vacuum. It’s unfolding just as the Philippines prepares for crucial midterm elections that will determine the balance of power in Congress. The results will dictate whether Marcos Jr. strengthens his grip on the government or whether Duterte’s allies manage to strike back. If pro-Duterte candidates win big, impeachment could stall, and the Marcos administration could be in for a rough ride in the second half of its term.

But the implications go even deeper. The Marcos family has spent decades trying to rehabilitate its image after Ferdinand Marcos Sr.'s brutal dictatorship, while the Dutertes built their brand on populist strongman politics. These midterms are a referendum on which brand of political dominance Filipinos prefer. Are voters still enchanted by Duterte’s tough-on-crime rhetoric? Or has the economic and social turbulence under her father’s rule left them eager for something different?

On top of it all, the Philippines’ political crisis isn’t just a domestic issue—it has major geopolitical implications. The country is a key player in U.S.-China tensions in the South China Sea, and its leadership is crucial to maintaining regional stability. With the political elite at each other’s throats, governance is taking a backseat, leaving international allies watching nervously. If instability escalates, foreign investors may reconsider their commitments, impacting the nation’s already fragile economy.

As the Philippines hurtles toward a political reckoning, the next few months will determine the country’s trajectory for years to come. Will Duterte survive impeachment and emerge stronger, or will this be the end of her political career? Will Marcos Jr. consolidate power, or will the midterms deliver a stunning rebuke? Only time will tell what’s next on the horizon.