Carney's Liberals' Polling Resurgence

February 3rd, 2025

Justin Palazzolo

Roughly four weeks ago, when long-time Canadian PM Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as the head of the Canadian Liberal Party, the Liberals prepared for a federal election cycle where damage control, not victory, was the party focus.

With Trudeau having the lowest approval rating in his near-decade long term, and the Liberal party holding a mere 16% approval rating, many assumed that a change in power for Canadian politics was a practical guarantee.

However, a month later the polling situation is changing drastically. According to an Ekos poll, the Liberals are polling at a spike of 31% while the Conservatives have dipped to 38.5%. This significant narrowing of the federal election race between the two parties indicates that a conservative victory might not be as guaranteed as once thought. Furthermore, some polling scenarios now indicate that the Liberals might actually lead in Ontario, Canada’s most populated province.

Within the Liberal party, two candidates are now contending to fill Trudeau’s vacancy. Mark Carney, the former head of the Bank of Canada, as well as Chrystia Freeland, an ex-finance minister, are both in contention for the position of party leader. However, given Carney’s lead over Freeland in the percentage of voters who would vote for the Liberals with him as party leader compared to Freeland, Carney is extremely likely to fill in as party leader.

But for both Conservatives and Liberals, they find themselves asking the same question: Will Carney’s and the current Liberal uptick be enough to move the needle in Canada’s elections?

Unfortunately for the Liberals, the answer is likely no.

The basis for Liberal optimism focuses on the released Ekos and Mainstreet Research Polls. Both of the polls differ in what we have seen over January due to the fact that they show a Liberal resurgence. However, the latest national polling aggregate, which provides more holistic results considering it combines poll results from across Canada, still showed a 23-point lead for the Conservatives over the Liberals. With Ontario’s voting beginning on Feb. 27th, such a late lead would indicate the Conservatives will easily be able to form the next Canadian government.

Furthermore, critics of the Ekos poll say that the sample significantly overrepresented individuals who had attended college, a voter demographic that significantly favors the Liberal party. This is the same mistake pollsters made in the 2024 U.S. elections, where pollsters had Harris tied or leading going into election night, only to be followed by Trump’s blowout win. If the case for a Liberal victory is based on shaky polling, there is no reason why Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives should lose their bearings.

While Mark Carney retains the potential to bring an electoral upset to Canada, he will be hard-pressed to turn this potential into reality.