Myanmar’s Misery and Military Mayhem

March 31st, 2025

Ian Cheng

In 2021, the Tatmadaw, better known as the military junta, unleashed a coup in Burma, also called Myanmar. Upon snatching power away, it detained several members of the opposing National League for Democracy (NLD,) which won elections in 2020. It has maintained its power by guaranteeing itself 25% of the seats in both the 440-seat House of Representatives and the 224-seat House of Nationalities. Former NLD members and other revolutionary forces have formed the National Unity Government (NUG,) who are one of the rebel groups fighting against the junta today.

The junta have been accused of committing genocide against the Muslim Rohingya people. The 600,000 Rohingyans who still reside in the Rakhine state in Western Burma are being deprived of food, water, and medical care. However, another opposition group, the Arakan Army (AA,) now controls 13 out of the 17 townships in Rakhine. This has driven even more Rohingya out. The AA wants to be separate from any future Burmese government. Rebel groups against the junta are by no means united.

People have fled to refugee camps in neighboring countries, and life is not that much better there either. More specifically, the Trump administration's dismantling of the US Agency for International Development has greatly constrained the working capacity of the Kutupalong Refugee Camp, which holds upwards of 880,000 Rohingyans. Monthly allowances are set to fall to just $6 a month. On a visit to the facility, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres emphasized that in 2025, the world would only provide 40% of the resources necessary to meet humanitarian needs.

Beyond assistance, America has always taken a very indirect stance in Myanmar, limiting engagement in fear of a dangerous Chinese response. However, China assumes the NUG to be a US proxy, or a group fighting and representing the United States. As a result, the Asian superpower has taken a very aggressive approach. Beijing has backed the junta, pledging $3 billion in assistance, and even building the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor via the Belt and Road Initiative. Even though China has little faith in the military junta, they believe it is the best option to pursue their interests, such as a greater presence in the Indian Ocean.

In lieu of the US, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN,) consisting of countries like Indonesia and Thailand, have tried to push the junta into prioritizing peace over an election. The regional bloc’s Five-Point Consensus peace plan was agreed upon in April 2021. It called for all parties involved in the conflict to engage in diplomatic talks. Unfortunately, that is far easier said than done. Nearly 1,700 armed groups are involved in the Burmese civil war. Although the military has lost momentum, it still holds 21% of Myanmar, while various rebel groups hold 42%. The other 37% is still being contested.

The ruling junta has promised elections around December 2025. However, looking at the current situation, it is destined to be corrupt. Only parties approved by the junta are allowed to take part. Half the country, or 145 out of 330 municipalities, can have their votes recorded. Fair democracy cannot happen when Myanmar is in shambles.

One key source of revenue for the military junta have been “scam dens,” where forced labor is used to send scam texts and emails to people in dozens of countries. From the start of 2020 to February of 2024, $75 billion has been stolen. Seeing that 76% of Myanmar’s population lives with the bare minimum for basic needs like shelter, none of that is being used to improve living conditions. Chinese and Thai efforts to clamp down on these scams have led to devastation. After people are freed from these “dens,” they are sent to makeshift camps. A man named Mike notes that the building he shares with 450 strangers only has two toilets, and each person receives just two basic meals a day.

Finally, the economy is in dire straits. Food prices have risen 154% in the last year, and Myanmar’s GDP has contracted by 9% since 2020. The country is going through a complicated crisis that is too difficult to solve without widespread, careful efforts.