Justin Lin — July 21, 2026
On the outskirts of the Pacific Ocean, sitting just south of the East China Sea and north of the Indian Ocean, lies an island: Taiwan. Officially called the Republic of China (ROC), Taiwan has been at the center of a decades-long debate over whether the island nation stands sovereign or as property of Mainland China, otherwise known as the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Despite Taiwanese government officials reaffirming that they are an independent country free from Mainland rule, China, which is under rule from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), has insisted that Taiwan belongs to them with reinforcement from U.S. President Donald Trump.
Political and economic relations between the two countries are defined as cross-strait relations, named after the Taiwan Strait that connects China and Taiwan; these relations are not diplomatic as the two engaging governments have never formally acknowledged the existence of each other. In recent years, controversy surrounding cross-strait relations have escalated after an increased Chinese military presence in the namesake strait could be observed beginning from 2022. This, alongside growing Taiwanese nationalism in the island country, has sparked concerns from foreign governments over possible scenarios detailing greater military escalation in the body of water or even full-out war between the two nations.
As the largest producer of semiconductors in the world, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would shake the economic world to its core. Beyond that, a reunification of China and Taiwan under a single political entity would undermine the standings that the United States currently holds in international affairs, as well as grant such an entity the ability to possibly shape global order in the years to come.
History
The flame in China-Taiwan relations has been alive since the end of the Second World War. Upon the defeat of the Axis Powers, Japan—which owned the island of Taiwan at the time—was forced to give up the island to the Allied Powers, where the ROC, under rule of the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) Party, soon took custody. However, the country then resumed their dormant civil war that was put on hold since the beginning of World War II, and KMT forces quickly fell under communist control led by the CCP. Upon their victory, the CCP established the PRC in Mainland China, forcing ROC and KMT officials to retreat to Taiwan, where they made their own government independent from the PRC.
Since then, the PRC has made multiple attempts to compel Taiwan to fall under CCP rule again. Most notable of these include the changing of the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China to state that “Taiwan is part of the sacred territory of the People’s Republic of China. It is the sacred duty of all Chinese people, including our compatriots in Taiwan, to accomplish the great cause of unifying the motherland”—one of the many facets of enforcement made by the PRC to uphold their One China principle, the PRC’s official position regarding cross-strait relations which rejects the existence of Taiwan. Regarding said principle, the Government of the PRC states that:
There is only one China in the world. Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. The government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China.
From this principle, the Chinese government has continued pursuing the reunification of China and Taiwan under one political entity, a hypothetical dubbed “Chinese unification.” The PRC has made numerous strides towards Chinese unification with the passing of the 2005 Anti-Secession Law, whose eighth article states that the Chinese government will use military means against Taiwanese independence in the event that peaceful means become impossible.
In the wake of the One China principle, the KMT proposed a similar resolution: One China with respective interpretations, which argued that Taiwan and China already fit under the description of One China, but under opposing political entities. This would shape the political identity of the KMT as its political party competed with an increasing number of opposition parties in Taiwanese politics, most notably the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the current ruling party of Taiwan which favors a hardline nationalist view cementing itself as completely independent from China. With a more conservative view of Taiwanese politics lies the KMT (otherwise known as the Chinese Nationalist Party), which opposes PRC-led Chinese unification but also an independent Taiwanese state, making KMT officials more likely to pursue greater economic and political ties with Mainland China.
In 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping revived a decades-old plan to reunify Taiwan with Mainland China under the “one country, two systems” (1C2S) structure, the same system used by China to govern Hong Kong. However, this quickly became unpopular with the Taiwanese public; in a 2025 Mainland Affairs Council poll, 80 percent of Taiwanese citizens rejected this idea, and the Taiwanese government has consistently rejected this proposal up until December of 2023.
After a visit by former U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August of 2022, China began to conduct unprecedented military exercises involving live ammunition and ballistic missiles around Taiwan, starting the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis that continues to escalate today. A similar situation occurred in April of 2023 after Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen (2016–2024) visited former U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California, where the Chinese army also deployed a round of military exercises.
During this time, the Chinese government released their first white paper on Taiwanese reunification, reiterating the 1C2S system on Taiwan to which Tsai vehemently rejected. In January of 2024, following DPP politician Lai Ching-te’s electoral victory, China stated that the DPP could not speak for the popular Taiwanese opinion. In response, Lai declared that Taiwan is not under Chinese authority, to which China strengthened their tariffs on the country and threatened the death penalty for any of its citizens who advocated for Taiwanese independence.
During this time, military exercises encircling the island nation have only escalated. In 2025, President Lai labeled China as a “foreign hostile force” using the Taiwanese Anti-Infiltration Act, and the Taiwanese government arrested four DPP staffers for spying for China amidst a growing wave of espionage activity against Taiwan from China.
In October of 2025, Sanae Takaichi was elected as the Prime Minister of Japan—a win for Taiwan as she was a staunch supporter of the country’s independence movement. The following month, she announced that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would constitute an “existential crisis” for Japan, which would allow them to mobilize their military for self-defense. Xue Jian, the Chinese consul general in Osaka, then made threatening comments against Takaichi on X (formerly Twitter), sparking the ongoing China-Japan diplomatic crisis. In 2026, China would begin restricting the export of rare earth minerals to the country.
On the other hand, U.S. President Donald Trump has been quite wary of Taiwan. Despite him receiving a congratulatory phone call from Tsai Ing-Wen following his 2016 electoral victory, he recently warned Taiwan against declaring its independence from China following a visit to Beijing, stating that he’s “not looking to have somebody [Taiwan] go independent.” The United States has historically been a major arms supplier to Taiwan, which utilizes its Patriot missile system to defend itself against and fire retaliatory strikes at China. China has not supported these arms sales to Taiwan, claiming that it interferes with its own internal affairs regarding cross-strait relations.
Recent Developments
The trend of arms sales from the United States to Taiwan may soon come to a halt. In May of 2026, President Trump blocked a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan to ensure self-defense from China after his trip to Beijing, citing that the U.S. military needed more munitions to ensure they had enough for joint operations in the Middle East.
Trump also cited that putting the sale in limbo was a “very good negotiating chip” in his dealings with Xi Jinping and put forth the idea of a phone call with President Lai as he weighs whether to proceed with the sale or not, though China has publicly warned against directly contacting Lai. Such a call would mark the first time any American and Taiwanese president have contacted each other in decades—something that China would otherwise like to not see happen.
Trump has publicly stated that the “Taiwan question”—the term given to the political dispute over whether Taiwan is a country or not—is at the forefront of U.S.-China negotiations. The Chinese embassy in Washington told the Associated Press in June of 2026 that a call from Trump to Lai would undermine an already incredibly fragile relationship between the United States and China, and warned against directly negotiating with him regarding the arms sale.
However, by directly putting the arms sale in a state of limbo, President Trump could be emboldening China to increase intimidation tactics around the island nation. In fact, China is currently in construction of an extensive network containing life-size replicas of U.S. and Taiwanese warships, military bases, and government buildings in what seems to be preparation for a future attack on Taiwan. Similarly, China has also begun building drones to potentially deploy around or in the country—another sign that a future attack may be near.
The Pentagon has a term for this: the “Davidson window,” or the time period between 2021 and 2027 in which policy analysts believe China will have developed enough military capabilities to launch an invasion on Taiwan. Though an attack on Taiwan was considered imminent by 2027, the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community now believes otherwise, stating that it seems unlikely that Xi has a fixed timeline on resolving the Taiwan question.
Alongside military exercises that China conducts around Taiwan, they are also a heavy executor of cyberattacks. In January of 2026, Taiwan’s National Security Bureau reported that the island nation suffered a record 2.6 million cyberattacks from China a day in 2025, up six percent from the year prior. According to the report, most of the attacks have been attributed to Chinese state-sponsored actors.
Even more, the general Taiwanese public also does not support the idea of reunification with Mainland China. Amidst KMT chairwoman Cheng Li-wun’s historic visit to Beijing in April of 2026 to meet Xi Jinping, which marked the first time a KMT and CCP leader had met in nearly ten years, a Brookings poll revealed that a large majority of Taiwanese citizens opposed the 1C2S system Xi proposed for Taiwan.
In April of 2026, a planned visit by President Lai to go to Eswatini was canceled after Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar revoked their overflight permits for Taiwanese citizens over pressure from China to do so. On July 17, China successfully pressured Papua New Guinea into doing the same as the former three countries, prompting the United States to comment that it is “deeply” concerned over the fact that the Pacific country would close its Taiwanese office in the face of Chinese adversity.
Similarly, Chinese officials pressured the Zambian government to abruptly cancel the RightsCon Conference, the largest digital rights conference in the world, that was being held in the country due to suspicions that Taiwanese activists were going to be in attendance. Two Taiwanese delegates attending the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya were also detained and expelled from said conference.
All the aforementioned countries are supporters of the One China initiative as their defiance over Taiwanese sovereignty helps them keep their valuable relationship with China, who has supported them economically through initiatives such as that of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It becomes clear that strategically, China does possess an upper hand against Taiwan.
Implications
Yet, that doesn’t stop Taiwan from building its own network of consumers that rely on its work. As the largest producer of advanced semiconductors in the world, it’s built a relationship with countries like the United States, Japan, and even China as the base of their growing technological sphere that extends to virtually every country in the world.
Because of that, degrading cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan have the ability to shape international relations immensely. First, U.S. security interests would be greatly challenged from a further escalation of developments between the two countries. Despite Trump being wary of Taiwan, the United States still broadly supports the sovereignty of the nation, hence the visits from Nancy Pelosi and Kevin McCarthy. If conflict arises, the U.S. government would be forced to navigate a world where they continue supporting Taiwan economically and politically while simultaneously attempting to avoid a further degradation of relations from China by doing so.
On the topic of U.S. security, further military escalation by China onto Taiwan may limit the United States’ freedom to operate in Western Pacific waters. The same can be said in a scenario where China ultimately occupies Taiwan, which would also make it increasingly difficult for the United States to defend allies in the Pacific such as Japan and South Korea.
Not just that, but the United States is legally obligated by the Taiwan Relations Act to supply Taiwan with military means in order for the country to defend itself against a looming Chinese threat. Upon the event of degrading cross-strait relations, the United States would still have to perform said act even if it spells a souring of U.S.-China relations.
Secondly, the economic world would have to suffer shockwaves upon an escalation of conflict in Taiwan. Among one of the largest non-U.S. based companies in the world is the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), whose value has skyrocketed supplying Silicon Valley companies like Nvidia, Apple, and Google with advanced semiconductors amidst the current AI boom.
If conflict were to occur in Taiwan, TSMC operations would be forced to slow down or even halt temporarily. This disruption in the flow of chip production—especially from a country that makes over 90% of semiconductors in the world—would shock the economy internationally and weaken countries like the United States and Japan, whose industries heavily rely on technology supplied to them by Taiwan, indefinitely.
However, TSMC and the rest of the world is deeply aware of this problem; for the past year, they have been attempting to diversify their production locations, including a $265 billion project to start chip manufacturing plants in Arizona, in an attempt to kickstart their already-growing investments in U.S. chipmaking. That still may not be enough to prevent a global economic downfall in the event of a conflict between China and Taiwan if the former’s timeline is set on next year.
Finally, a conflict between the two countries has the ability to shape global order worldwide. First, Chinese reunification already spells the extinguishing of a liberal democracy, something that may embolden other countries like Russia to attempt to do the same. On the note of Russia, a Chinese occupation of Taiwan implies that countries are allowed to unilaterally redraw borders, which would reinforce Russia’s doings in Ukraine.
It’s also already been established that the United States is legally obligated to arm Taiwan in the face of China. Yet, if Taiwan falls to China even with American reinforcements by their side, it could be a sign to allies—especially Pacific—of the United States that even having them as a partner may not be enough for full protection against malicious entities.
Japan may also be caught in the mix. In August of 2022, the Chinese military fired ballistic missiles that landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone in the inception of the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis, perhaps as a warning from China for Japan not to interfere in cross-strait relations. Upon Chinese reunification, China would also claim ownership of the Japanese-governed Senkaku Islands, and Japan would most likely fail at defending these islands in the wake of conflict.
Furthermore, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has publicly expressed her support for Taiwan—something that angers Chinese officials and may incentivize them to take the Senkaku Islands as well as throw an attempt at perhaps capturing Okinawa as well. If that happens, the United States would be even more encouraged to step into the conflict, possibly leading to greater escalations worldwide.
Where We Go From Here
However, the chances of a conflict actually happening in the near-future are quite slim. While the U.S. government did warn in 2023 that President Xi has ordered Chinese troops to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027, that assessment has since been reversed.
What is true, however, is a 2014 speech by Xi Jinping which links the unification of Taiwan to the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” something that he plans on achieving by 2049. Whether he plans on actually attempting to occupy Taiwan before then is unclear.
Despite that, what seems the most politically safe for both China and Taiwan right now is to maintain the status quo that they’ve already established with one another. In a 2024 poll conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, a supermajority of Taiwanese citizens support maintaining the status quo for now, something that would include neither declaring for independence or Chinese unification. How Chinese people feel about this is unclear—much Taiwan-related content in China has been restricted by the Chinese government in an attempt to crack down on independence advocacy in the country, though the Chicago Council also reports that 91% of Chinese citizens view the Taiwanese as their compatriots.
However, it’s not clear as to whether China will follow this conclusion. What’s more likely is that the country will continue to do what it’s been doing for the past few years: establish maritime pressure and pursue grey-zone—the state between peace and war—actions to intimidate the island nation.
What’s also important to note is that as of July 2026, Taiwan is still eagerly waiting for President Trump to conclude his $14 billion arms sale to the country, something that they desperately need to defend themselves if China ever plans on escalating its military aggression towards them. It’s no surprise that he also has to act quick.
It’s safe to say that Taiwan is currently in a predicament. The events that have conspired against the country have been like none other observed in recent history, leaving them in a state of unknown as to what could happen next. What is for sure, however, is that a conflict between the two countries would be detrimental for the rest of the international community—an outcome the world would have every reason to dread.
Read More Here:
David Sacks, Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounder
Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventative Action, Global Conflict Tracker
Susan M. Gordon and Michael G. Mullen, Council on Foreign Relations Task Force Report No. 81
Richard C. Bush and Ryan Hass, Brookings Institute
Center for Strategic and International Studies, On China: Taiwan
Center for Strategic and International Studies, Cross-Strait Security Initiative
