Dhanesh Amaresam — November 10, 2026
Across parts of Indonesia, including the islands of Papua and Sumatra, forest fires have ravaged the areas and their respective regions. For context, July and August fall within the dry season, where water-dense peatlands and tropical forests experience drought. Farmers have leveraged these conditions by utilizing slash-and-burn agriculture to clear land for palm oil and pulpwood plantations — thus contributing to the fire season. September to October is when these forest fires start to noticeably spread more. These trends have been heavily powered by El Niño, which is an environmental phenomenon resulting in unusually warmer waters in the central and east parts of the Pacific Ocean. This climate pattern normally raises water in the area by 1.5 ℃ to 2℃, resulting in the rising of warm air on the shores of South America while sinking cold air is brought to Indonesia. Cold air suppresses Indonesia’s rainfall, which has brought drought to Sumatra and Papua. However, this year’s El Niño has increased the ocean water temperature by up to 4℃ — cementing its status as an unprecedented “super El Niño.”
Smoke from the fire reached Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, and Singapore, bringing air quality of “catastrophic proportions” to these countries. Microgram concentration has reached 1000 in some areas. To put that into perspective, the World Health Organization (WHO) stipulated that air quality should be no more than “15 micrograms per cubic metre of PM2.5 across a 24-hour average.” The situation has escalated to the point that it has drawn comparisons to Mars by local civilians.
Forest fires from Indonesia represent the main spark behind Singapore’s scrutiny over Indonesia, which has only led to further escalation. Under the Transboundary Haze Pollution Act, Singapore’s National Environment Agency (NEA) issued preventive notices to Indonesian and Singapore-based pulp and palm oil conglomerates.
Alongside the volley of rhetoric being exchanged between Indonesia and Singapore, tensions soared even more following Indonesia’s abrupt cut of pipeline natural-gas exports to Singapore by 8%, which was done to prioritize “domestic energy needs.” This was not taken lightly by Singapore, especially after Bahlil Lahadalia, Indonesia’s Energy Minister, pledged to halt energy contracts with countries that fail to “respect Indonesia.” Lawrence Tong, Singapore’s Prime Minister, called the move a concerning case of “resource nationalism” as Tong argued that Indonesia didn’t honor their natural gas export commitment.
This geopolitical deadlock comes at a time of increased geopolitical emphasis on the Strait of Malacca following the decline in commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Fortunately, Singapore and Indonesia have started a joint task force to mitigate the spread of haze from Indonesia’s wildfires. Indonesia has also been taking steps by deploying more than 71000 personnel to mitigate wildfires as well as opening criminal investigations into companies linked to these fires. Nevertheless, whether environmental intervention can prevent further political escalation remains to be seen.
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