Arnav Goyal — April 14, 2026
Over the past week, the uncertainty over the Iran War persisted, with broken ceasefires, fragile deals and further twists and turns in its trajectory. Oil jumped, then crashed, then jumped, and economic indicators are pushing that same uncertain narrative. Understanding U.S. foreign policy can help us forecast what may come next.
Starting the week, the trajectory of the war seemed grim, due to 2 key things:
- Higher oil prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz
- A deadline set by President Donald Trump to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday
After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices surged, Trump posited a deadline of Tuesday at 8 PM Eastern for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow for maritime traffic. Just hours before the deadline, he posted a widely-criticized message on Truth Social, warning, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” saying “we’re blowing up the entire country” if no agreement was reached. Furthermore, he issued a profanity-laden message that demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz. Some experts have interpreted this rhetoric as war crimes, as collective punishment, and the targeting of energy facilities is prohibited under the Geneva Convention. With this came an imperative for negotiations, and at the last minute, the United States and Iran agreed to a 2-week ceasefire and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to some traffic–leading to oil prices plunging and stocks soaring.
The roller coaster did not stop there, however. The two warring parties agreed to meet in Islamabad, Pakistan, to negotiate the terms of an end to the war, under the backdrop of heavy fighting, a fragile ceasefire deal and the Strait of Hormuz situation becoming unclear after Israeli strikes on Lebanon rendered traffic to a halt. Trump expressed optimism about the talks and an outcome that would result in a peace deal, with the Iranians cautiously agreeing. Alas, no outcome was done. After 21 hours of talks, Vice President JD Vance announced that some points were agreed to; however, a lasting deal was not, primarily due to Iran’s non-commitment to not make a nuclear weapon. This effectively brought the situation back to square one, making the global economy uncertain and the stability in the Middle East unclear.
The roller coaster ended the week at a brutal cliffhanger. After negotiations failed, primarily due to Iran’s refusal to commit to building a nuclear weapon, and the free passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump went all in with leverage. On Sunday, President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. Navy would blockade every single ship that aims to pass through the Strait, regardless of the ship’s nationality and whether or not it paid Iranian tolls to pass through. The intention is to cut off a significant portion of Iran’s economic and military funding, because tolls currently provide sustainable funding to the Iranian government. While Trump has alleged that Iran will “give us everything,” experts warn that this decision could flare up tensions with Iran and provide for a far more unstable world order.
Overall, American foreign policy decisions seem to project a trajectory of uncertainty of a lasting ceasefire and the actual outcome of the war. On one hand, talks have led to breakthroughs, but on the other hand, hardline measures have been taken to crush Iranian military and governmental operations.
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