Adhiyanth Ram — March 31, 2026
In a special election last week, Democrat Emily Gregory flipped a state House of Representatives seat in Florida’s 87th district, Palm Beach County. This seat first became vacant on August 18, 2025, after Republican incumbent Mike Caruso resigned to serve as the Palm Beach County Clerk of the Circuit Court and Comptroller, as appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis. Notably, DeSantis took months to call for the special election, which led to Gregory filing a lawsuit herself, claiming the delay left 114,000 residents without representation.
The two candidates, 43-year old Republican Jon Maples and 40-year old Democrat Emily Gregory, had vastly different campaigns. Maples, a financial planner, ran as a more establishment, traditional Republican candidate with support from other prominent Republicans and red organizations (Such as the Florida House Republican Campaign Committee, the Republican Party of Florida and even President Donald Trump). On the other hand, Gregory, a first-time candidate, works as a small business owner. She centered her campaign around issues she said affected those around her, such as affordability, housing and healthcare. This seems to mark the continuation of a trend of economic-policy-focused Democrats succeeding in contested elections (e.g., Zohran Mamdani before her). Additionally, both candidates had a fair amount of financial backing, as between them, over $1 million was spent in this House District race.
More broadly speaking, Gregory’s close victory, won by a margin of 797 votes against Maples, has implications for Democrats nationwide. This seat, which includes Trump’s Mar-A-Lago, leaned red. In 2024, Trump won the district by 11% in 2024. Gregory’s predecessor, Republican Mike Caruso, won this district by 19%. The shift toward Gregory in the special election was remarkable by comparison. Since the presidential election in 2024, Democrats have seen a flurry of wins in previously Republican-held seats. While Democrats have won 30 red-leaning or battleground districts across Texas, Arkansas and New Hampshire, Republicans have failed to capture a single Democratic seat. This leads to interesting implications for midterms in 2026. While midterms are usually lost by the incumbent party, current trends show an even larger red losing streak, which seems likely to be further exacerbated this November.
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